Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,
We are tracking two storm systems this week. One is due in mid-week, and the second is much bigger and will be developing next weekend! The first one is a fast moving wave that will create an area of snow from Nebraska and Iowa south into parts of Kansas and Missouri. The second and much larger storm system will begin developing this weekend. We are moving into the part of the pattern that has produced wet weather near Kansas City. Let’s see how it sets up this week.
LRC Forecast Discussion:
Welcome to the LRC Forecast Experience blog! According to the LRC a unique weather pattern sets up every fall between roughly October 1st and November 10th. A cycle length evolves, and the pattern then continues through the rest of fall, winter, spring, and deep into the next summer before another unique pattern sets up the next fall. Our weather team, which now has grown to four meteorologists, is working hard at bringing this new weather forecast technology mainstream. Doug Heady, KOAM meteorologist, has recently joined the team. He has what he calls the Heady Pattern. This is obviously very similar to what we have been calling the LRC. Whatever it is called, or will someday end up being called, is not that important. Doug has been working on his own research for over ten years now and we have joined forces with Jeff Penner and Eswar Iyer, a masters student at the University of Oklahoma to bring this new weather forecasting technique to the surface. We believe it is the best weather forecasting tool/method known in the field of meteorology today, and we are proving it with verified long range weather forecasts that are coming in accurate at a great 75% rate.
We are just now beginning LRC Cycle 4. The end of the cold phase of this years cycling weather pattern and the beginning of the warm phase of this year’s cycling weather pattern were caught in the very beginning of the evolving pattern in early October. The pattern that has brought Boston, MA an incredible 100 inches of snow in less than two months, and the pattern that has left most of us around Kansas City frustrated with a winter that has struggled to produce just a dozen inches of snow at KCI Airport was apparent from the beginning. Forecasting Boston’s major snow season was possible by mid to late October. And, as we learn more we will only increase our accuracy in these forecasts. Weather2020, using the LRC, has made forecasts for Boston’s big storm systems almost perfectly this season. What do we mean by this? We mean that we forecasted that impacting wet storm systems would be centered near the New England coast line. Did we know that 100 inches of snow would fall in two months? No, but we did know that Boston was in the “sweet spot” of this year’s weather pattern and that the biggest impact would be near their location. We also knew and actually forecasted that Kansas City was “not in the right spot”, as we have repeatedly stated.
Here is the forecast from our database that we made 8 weeks before the week of January 25th-31st for the New England Region:
“Weather 2020 will be tracking one main strong storm system as it tracks up the east coast and intensifies. This storm showed up in the last two cycles of the LRC so we have high confidence in its return. If you are in NYC, Boston, Hartford, Providence or Portland this storm will bring high winds and a day of heavy snow and rain during the work week. If enough cold air comes south, then a major snowstorm will impact the big coastal cities.
After the storm system there may be a brief warm up followed by another strong winter storm developing. Expect below average temperatures this week!”
What happened in Boston?
- January 25th: 38° with no snow
- January 26th: 29° with 2.3″ of snow
- January 27th: 19° with 22.1″ of snow
- January 28th: 24° with 0.2″ of snow
- January 29th: 32° with 4.3″ of snow
- January 30th: 34° with 0.7″ of snow
- January 31st: 21° with 1.3″ of snow
How would you judge that forecast? Verified? And, the forecast for Kansas City was just as good as Weather2020 forecasted a storm by the end of the month, and even though it was not showing up on the models even within around five days, it finally showed up! And, we had a storm, again with KC not quite in the right spot. Can you imagine being in Boston this winter. We may be all worn out, but we would not be left “weather frustrated” as many of us have been in this part of the world.
So, where are we today? Incredibly, and I use that word with every intention of it’s meaning as many of you would agree we are onto something big here. We “know” what the pattern will look like 10, 30, 100 days from now. We are already targeting the week of May 17-23 as the best chasing week of the year, well, if not the best, but one that storm chasers should put down on their calendars. Here is a look at the first four cycles of this year’s LRC:
While spending a few hours on Sunday analyzing the previous cycles I noticed that we can go back to the beginning. The LRC often can be shown to start each year during that first week of October. Why would this happen? The first and simple answer is that summer has just ended and the jet stream has evolved from it’s weakest point in early August into it’s strengthening new point in early October. The old pattern gets wiped out, and the new pattern begins. Something happens during this early stage that establishes the pattern that we will be experiencing for the next year! And, for Boston it was setting up to be an experience that they may not have for another 50 years or longer, and for Kansas City it set up into a very frustrating pattern, and we knew it early.
Look at LRC Cycle 1, 2, 3, and the current set-up this week. They are all related. To our Weathe2020 team the comparisons line up almost perfectly. Are there differences? Of course. The weather pattern in October, November, January, and late February have major seasonal differences! It is our challenge to know about these seasonal differences, know and understand the cycle length, and various other factors that we learn more about each year, and then to make the accurate forecasts, again that are coming in accurate in the 75% range. Vacation planners, wedding planners, agriculture interests, insurance companies, retail outlets, and so many more weather sensitive businesses will need to pay close attention as we have something that we are now sharing with you.
When you look at the maps above, you are looking at October 9th, November 20th, January 10th, and the current LRC Cycle 4 February 24th. Just three to seven days after these dates a storm system tracked into the west and then out into the plains in each cycle. It is likely going to happen again this weekend at the beginning of LRC Cycle 4.
Midweek storm system:
The NAM model is the first model out, and is showing a 1 to 3 inch snow potential for late Wednesday/Wednesday night. The European and Canadian models have had all of the snow just northeast and east of Kansas City, but those models haven’t come in yet today. So, let’s see how this sets up and we can pick up the discussion in our blog comments section.
Weekend storm system:
There will be a cold air mass coming down again this week, and a storm is forecast to drop into the western states by the weekend. Warmer & moist air will be drawn northward from the Gulf of Mexico and the stage will be set for a wetter storm system, but where will the biggest impacts be located? It appears that this next storm will dig a bit into the southwest before doing what all of the storm systems have done this season and phase into the flow by Monday. It’s still a bit early, but it appears that the best chance of winter precipitation types may end up over Nebraska and Iowa. We will know a lot more soon, so let’s look deeper into this storm later in the week
Have a great Monday!