Major League Baseball Opening Day Forecast

/Major League Baseball Opening Day Forecast

Major League Baseball Opening Day Forecast

Good evening fans,

We are in between stormy periods now and it will be calming down around the natino for a few days.  The active part of the pattern, unfortunately, will be returning by opening day for Major League Baseball.

From Our Press Release earlier this week:


Revolutionary New Weather Forecasting Technology Provided Only Accurate Super Bowl XLVIII Weather Forecast 50 Days Before the Big Game

KANSAS CITY, Mo. (March 10, 2014) – A stormy and cold weather pattern will be moving back into the United States for Major League Baseball Opening Day games on March 31, Weather 2020 meteorologists have announced. Fans and players in many cities hosting games can expect precipitation in the form of cold rain, snow or thunderstorms. Temperatures are expected to be average in most cities except for games in California where temperatures will fall below average and in Arizona and Florida where temperatures are expected to be above average.

Weather 2020 forecasts for Opening Day games:

  • Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Penn. Forecast: Dry conditions with near to above average temperatures warming into the 60s.
  • Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park in Detroit, Mich. Forecast: A cold pattern expected for the first series. There will be a chance of rain or snow.
  • Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets at Citi Field in Brooklyn, N.Y. Forecast: Expect a brief warm-up, followed by rain or snow in the coming days.
  • Philadelphia Phillies vs. Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington in Arlington, Texas. Forecast: Expect warm temperatures with humid conditions and a chance of thunderstorms.
  • Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park in Milwaukee, Wis. Forecast: Cold with rain or snow likely throughout the day
  • Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Md. Forecast: Mild temperatures for Opening Day with conditions expected dry with chances for thunderstorms as the week continues.
  • Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox at U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago, Ill. Forecast: A cold and stormy pattern likely to move through during the game.
  • St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Forecast: A cold front moving through with a chance of rain or snow.
  • Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla. Forecast: Expect outside temperatures in the 70s or 80s with dry conditions.
  • Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins at Marlins Park in Miami, Fla. Forecast: Temperatures for the game are expected to be in the 80s. Nice temperatures will accompany humid conditions with no rain expected.
  • San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks at Chace Field in Phoenix, Ariz. Forecast: A storm system is will move through Arizona around Opening Day with a few showers and cooler than average temperatures expected.
  • Cleveland Indians vs. Oakland Athletics at Coliseum in Oakland, Calf. Forecast: Colder than average temperatures expected accompanied by a few showers.
  • Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium of Anaheim in Anaheim, Calf. Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of a few showers during the day. Cooler than average temperatures expected.

In early January, Weather 2020 issued the only accurate forecast of no snow and temperatures in the 50s at Super Bowl XLVIII on Feb. 2 in East Rutherford, N.J. The forecast contrasted other predictions issued in the days and weeks leading up to the event from traditional methods that called for bitter cold and possible snow.

Here is the link to the press release:

Long Range Weather Discussion:

The weather pattern is calming down as a storm exits the east coast tonight.   There will be a few storm systems between now and the 25th of march, but we are now in between active periods…..

1We often show the stormy parts of the pattern and how they fit into the LRC. The entire pattern is cycling and regularly, and our knowledge of this cycling pattern has allowed our team to make these accurate long range weather forecasts since winter began.  It isn’t just one day, one snap shot in time.  Let’s take a look at yet another example of the cycling pattern. We have established firmly that the pattern has been cycling every 56 to 58 days, give or take a few days.  This map on the left is just the 500 mb forecast valid next Tuesday.

November 24The flow aloft, two cycles ago, has been weighted slightly heavier than the pattern from January, that was majorly influenced by the brutally cold January Arctic outbreaks.  We are trying to simplify this to see the LRC at this one level and you can clearly see the comparisons from November 24th, the actual 500 mb chart from that day, to the map above left.  We are now getting the April version of the pattern.

So, what lies ahead? There will be a few storm systems in the next ten days, but we are in this little quieter period until later this month when the Super Bowl part of the weather pattern returns. That will be one heck of a stormy stretch later this month into April. We will look ahead later this week.

Thank you for reading the blog.  Let us know if you have any questions or comments.

Gary Lezak

2014-03-12T20:58:29+00:00 March 12th, 2014|General|0 Comments

No Comments

  1. Dobber March 12, 2014 at 9:28 pm - Reply

    Very vague……very vague Gary…..

    • Gary Lezak March 12, 2014 at 9:44 pm - Reply


      It’s how we make these forecasts this far out. With a bit more analysis I could get more detailed. It is something that we will try to do as the years go by. But for now we are doing the most precise and most realistic way of making a forecast for an opening day game way in advance.

      So, yes, pretty vague, but we are still putting it out there.


  2. Mr. Pete March 12, 2014 at 11:50 pm - Reply

    Sounds like April will be good for some precip

  3. PaolaWeatherNewbie March 13, 2014 at 7:57 am - Reply

    That’s cool how you listed all the different stadiums with their own separate forecast. Nobody else is doing that! Can’t wait to see how it turns out!

    Oh, Gary, below the Opening day forecast portion, you have “Here is the link to the press release” (for the Super Bowl forecast), but no link is there.

  4. sam hill March 13, 2014 at 8:49 am - Reply

    I agree with Dobber this is a very vague forecast. This forecast is way less then 50 days out and I can understand the complexity and time it would take to make a precision forecast for each ballpark. With that said I thought you would have a more specific forecast for the KC Royals since you are in KC. The way this forecast is worded you can’t miss.

    • Alice March 13, 2014 at 9:03 am - Reply

      sam hill,
      The KC Royals game will be in Detroit, not Kansas City, therefore the forecast is for Detroit !

      • sam hill March 13, 2014 at 1:08 pm - Reply


        I’m well aware the game is in Detroit. I was referencing opening day IN KC! I should have said home opener at the K so people could understand more easily. I assumed that most people don’t care about the weather in Detroit but do care what the weather will be for the home opener for KC! That’s what I get for assuming!!

        • Alice March 13, 2014 at 1:41 pm - Reply

          sam…sorry I misunderstood.
          Its just that this 2020 forecast is for MLB opening day games on March 31…and weather2020 is geared towards national forecasting, not so much local.
          Royals home opener is April 4. I am assuming Gary will put that forecast on the KSHB blog soon…..?? It does get confusing, to me at least, to come here and not see local…but he told us to look at KSHB for those.

          • Alice March 13, 2014 at 1:55 pm - Reply

            It is Gary’s hope and intention to garner national comments on this LRC 2020 blog. But so far I on’t see it happening…but then I don’t know where any 2020 bloggers are located. At any rate, he did tell local bloggers to come here, not go to KSHB blog, for the long ranger questions. And Royals, April 4 home opener, would be in that category of long-range ? So he should be answering it here.
            So, what say you Gary? Do you want us locals to come here, or ask on the other blog, about local forecasts, and long range questions here or there for local ? We are in a unique quandary…. jumping back and forth between 2 blogs for info, since you are based in KC.

    • Vince March 13, 2014 at 9:02 pm - Reply

      Sure he could be wrong,:


      •Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park in Detroit, Mich. Forecast: A cold pattern expected for the first series. There will be a chance of rain or snow.

      Now, if it’s sunny each day and highs in the highs in the 50’s or better, the above would be wrong. The point of the above forecast is to alert you that don’t expect nice weather for the series.


      •Philadelphia Phillies vs. Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington in Arlington, Texas. Forecast: Expect warm temperatures with humid conditions and a chance of thunderstorms.

      Now, if it’s rainy and in the 50’s or so, this would be the opposite of what is expected above.

      So, the way that it is worded doesn’t make any weather possible.

  5. yewtrees March 13, 2014 at 11:58 am - Reply

    Gary. A couple days ago, when a blogger asked you when the late March/early April version of the “arctic blast” comes and how cold do you expect it to get “here”? This was your answer ” do think it will get here, but how cold will it be? Not sure yet.” My question to you is that how can’t you predict the weather less than three weeks from now; but you could make an accurate Super Bowl XLVIII weather forecast 50 Days before the game?

    • Gary Lezak March 13, 2014 at 9:03 pm - Reply


      I can be more specific. On the Super Bowl forecast I spend hours working on the details, analyzing the pattern and getting down to that day, and the days around it. On the end of March and early April, I haven’t put the time in for a forecast so specific, but it can be done. And, the forecast for a winter day forecast is different than a forecast for a spring day forecast. There is a difference, and I will not get that specific unless I put a bit more time into a specific day. On the opening day forecasts, those are also a bit vague, but we do know what the pattern will likely look like.


  6. Dave March 13, 2014 at 12:24 pm - Reply

    Is calling for a “chance” of something really a forecast? Even if the chance of rain or snow is 1%, technically you’d be right.

  7. sam hill March 13, 2014 at 1:13 pm - Reply

    “We have established firmly that the pattern has been cycling every 56 to 58 days, give or take a few days.” How can it be firmly 56-58 days if it could be 54 days or 61 days. I hope you understand my point here. Not trying to be “negative’ just curious as to how you phrased this. This is where I think you need to hire a professinal writer if you decide to submit this for peer review. By professional I mean smeone who has done this type of work or presenting things for peer review and or a grant to get funding for more research. In a peer review they would pick out that one sentence for sure.

    • Gary Lezak March 13, 2014 at 9:05 pm - Reply


      It is firmly in that smaller range, but we could go into a deep discussion on the hows and whys of the pattern “seeming” like it is only 53 or 54 days, or 60 to 61 days at times. This is not an easy thing to just explain, but overall the 57 days, and 56 to 58 days has been working well. It will still come down to the person making the forecast on what is going to happen that deep into the future.


  8. BIGMIKE March 13, 2014 at 2:09 pm - Reply

    is there something brewing up for us about this time next week????????????

  9. Judy Cannon March 13, 2014 at 3:30 pm - Reply

    You didn’t show the Yankees weather. There are some Yankee fans in MIssouri, not many but some. 🙂

  10. Emaw March 13, 2014 at 5:36 pm - Reply

    Above you call for near average temperatures in most cities for that 1st week of April, how does that jive with your forecast of another Arctic “blast” in that same time frame?

    • Gary Lezak March 13, 2014 at 9:07 pm - Reply

      Just for that first day there will be a warm-up likely in the eastern cities, just like what happened on the Super Bowl, just a day or two later it will likely be a blast of cold.

  11. batman March 13, 2014 at 7:29 pm - Reply

    Well Emaw already asked my question that I had. In the KSHB blog someone asked you this question and you said you didn’t know how cold it would be. It would seem that the above forecasts are vauge for a reason because you really don’t know what is going to happen. Is that a fair statement? The SuperBowl forecast was very precise as well as the Masters forecast. Should you have just stuck with a KC opening day forecast so that you could make a precise forecast like the aforementioned ones.

  12. BIGMIKE March 14, 2014 at 8:48 pm - Reply

    do you see the chance of 1 to 2 winter storms hitting this area around the 26th-30th timeframe??

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