Good morning bloggers and welcome to Weather2020,

Weather2020 put out a press release earlier this week for the Superbowl weather forecast:  NO CHANCE OF SNOW on the Superbowl.  Here is the link:  No Snow On Super Bowl Press Release.  Here is an excerpt from the release:

No snow will impact Super Bowl XLVIII at the MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N. J. on Feb. 2, 2014 as forecasted by Weather 2020, a newly launched mobile app based on Lezak’s Recurring Cycle (LRC), a revolutionary weather forecasting technology created by Gary Lezak, a seasoned weather expert and current chief meteorologist at Kansas City’s 41 Action News. The one-of-a-kind app provides weather forecasts up to 12 weeks in advance. Weather 2020’s forecast deflates the official forecast from “The Old Farmers’ Almanac,” the 196-year-old reference guide that has become known for its long-range weather predictions, which is forecasting bitter cold and possible snow. “The Farmers’ Almanac’s” predicted forecast has even compelled the NFL to compile contingency plans that include rescheduling the Super Bowl for either the Saturday before or the Monday or Tuesday after Feb. 2. While these preparations are rational based on “The Farmers’ Almanac’s” forecast, Weather 2020, based on the LRC, has forecasted nearly a zero percent of snow on Super Bowl Sunday. Weather 2020 has also forecasted the possibility of rain days before Feb. 2, but with forecasted temperatures reaching as high as into the 50’s, the precipitation will not result in snow.

Let’s take a look at the pattern that cycled through at the end of LRC Cycle 1 and the beginning of LRC Cycle 2.  The part of the pattern that will be cycling back through occurred around 55 to 61 days ago in the last cycle.  When you look at this pattern the east coast had one system passing by around December 3rd as you can see on this first 500 mb map below.  But the pattern was dominated by southwest flow the rest of that week.  Take a look at the maps, and you can click on them for a larger view:

LRC C2 Dec 3

The map above shows the 500 flow on December 3rd, and the map below shows the flow on December 4th.  The cycling weather pattern has been close to 57 or 58 days, but it could be anywhere in the range of 55 to 61.  So, these next 7 maps could all be close to how the pattern will be setting up on Superbowl Sunday.

LRC C2 Dec 4

Between December 4th and 5th another Polor Vortex was dropping south to near the USA/Canada border, as you can see below, on December 5th map, this will likely happen a few days before Superbowl Sunday.  There is a little ridge on the east coast at this time:

LRC C2 Dec 5

By December 6th, the vortex lifted northeast into eastern Canada with a new trough digging south across the Pacific Northwest.  This little ridge and the northward moving vortex will likely return right around Super Bowl Sunday allowing for warmer air to be drawn in.

LRC C2 Dec 6

This next map below shows a strong storm forming over the Pacific Northwest near Seattle, WA.  This places the east coast in a long fetch of southwesterly flow:

LRC C2 Dec 7

And, by December 8th, another Polar Vortex is dropping south across Canada.  The east coast continues to be in southwest flow aloft, which can produce snow if there is a cold air mass in place.

LRC C2 Dec 8

 And, on December 9th a very cold weather pattern became firmly established over the United States, but the east coast was still in higher heights.

LRC C2 Dec 9

I just showed the seven day stretch that will likely cycle back through in LRC Cycle 3, right around the Superbowl. There was an impacting snowstorm in the last cycle, with that part of the pattern returning a day or two after the Super Bowl, so we will be paying close attention to exactly how the surface pattern sets up. Do you remember the Philalelphia snowstorm during the NFL football game on December 8, 2013?  The Detroit Lions were in town and snow was falling at the rate of around 2″ per hour during the game and they played the game with the Eagles winning 34-20.  This part of the weather pattern will most likely return just one or two days after the Superbowl, but will it snow in this next cycle?  Very likely it will, and if the LRC cycle length remains close to the 57 days it has been consistently, then this potential snow would happen after the Super Bowl warm-up.  High pressure moved in as you can see on thid December 8th surface map below:

LRC C2 Surfac Dec 8LRC C2 Surface Dec 9

The set-up for that snowstorm in Philadelphia had this high pressure area move in behind a cold front.  A warm advection pattern did set up and heavy snow was the result in the northeast and near the coast. We strongly believe that when this pattern returns in the early February version of the LRC, that any chance of snow will be with a storm four or five days before and one or two days after the big game.  a warm-up is likely sometime late in Super Bowl week, and any chance of snow is quite low for the game, and using the LRC we have put out the no chance of snow press release based on this likely set up in LRC cycle 3.  This is a tight window, but our confidence is high!

Now, on to Kansas City. The weather pattern I just described above will also impact us later in January into the first couple of weeks of February.  There will be some more cold air between now and then, but another major Arctic blast will likely arrive around Superbowl Sunday in KC and the plains with potential storm systems.

For now, we have a weak system coming our way tonight, and then the stronger one on Friday.  This first weak system will spread thick cloud cover and some light snow and freezing drizzle into our area. Take a look at the latest NAM model simulated radar:

1

A disturbance aloft will be approaching and creating the conditions for an area of snow to develop and approach Kansas City from the south.  The map above shows the simulated radar valid at midnight tonight. And, this map below shows the simulated radar six hours later at 6 AM Thursday:

3

The area of snow is forecast by this computer model to just barely get into the KC metro area before exiting rapidly off to the east.  And, KC will likely be on the western edge of this band of precipitation. I will be watching radar this evening closely from Southern California and I will update you tonight if this gets exciting at all.  There will likely be some minor accumulations of less than an inch of snow, and possibly some freezing drizzle creating some slick conditions later tonight.

And, then we get to concentrate on this next system.  Warmer air will be drawn in ahead of this next storm and the precipitation type will most likely be rain with a few thunderstorms possible.  Here is the simulated radar valid Friday afternoon.  And, any shift to the east or south and Kansas City could again be on the edge of this system. It would be nice to get a good soaking.

4

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Weather 2020 blog.  Let us know if you have any questions or comments. Have a great Wednesday.

Gary