Good late night, or early morning,

Take a look at this cold front at 10:30 PM.  This is the most dramatic front of the season, and it will sort of go by unnoticed as there is no precipitation associated with it.  The winds are about to pick up big time with temperatures dropping:


This cold air is now firmly in place on this Sunday morning.  Temperatures have dropped to 14 degrees and there have been a few snowflakes flying through the cold air.  This week will feature some ups and downs and there is one possible storm system that will spread snow across the plains. Will this system take aim on Kansas City, or track to the north across Iowa like most of the models have been hinting at. It will depend on a series of waves coming into the western part of North America during  the next 48 hours.

We just can’t get into the right spot for these storm systems this season. And, it has been quite consistent. Last week’s storm was a nice one for us to track, but it was still frustrating, at least it was for me.  For this one to not be frustrating we will need a strong wave to drop southwest of Kansas City, and this has not been the trend in the models.


The energy that we will be tracking is just entering the picture on Monday way, way off to the northwest in the Gulf of Alaska as you can see above.

2Where will this go from here?  This is the 500 mb forecast valid at 6 AM Tuesday morning and the disturbance is now on the east side of a ridge that is building a bit over the eastern Pacific Ocean. The energy is about to go through another transition, however, and it will make our weather forecast difficult at best. What is going to happen with this disturbance by New Year’s Day?

As it moves southeast we may go back into the warm air with another reorganization of the Arctic air mass that will then be blasting our way again by January 1, 2014.

The latest NAM model tracks most of the snow to our north with another warming trend ahead of this system. We will be tracking this system for the next few days.

Saturday was actually a rather interesting weather day. Check out the picture I took around 2 PM:


That is a precipitating high based altocumulus cloud with a rain/snow shaft extending below the cloud base.  And, the rays from the sun create a beautiful naturalness to this picture, if that makes sense.

Have a great Sunday! Thank goodness the Chiefs game is in San Diego as it would have been brutally cold to tailgate this morning.